cdc-gov/early-modelbased-provisional-estimates-of-drug-v2g4-wqg2

  • deaths
  • drug overdose
  • mortality
  • nchs
  • nowcasting
  • + 8

Early Model-based Provisional Estimates of Drug Overdose, Suicide, and Transportation-related Deaths

Early Model-based Provisional Estimates of Drug Overdose, Suicide, and Transportation-related Deaths

This dataset provides model-based provisional estimates of the weekly numbers of drug overdose, suicide, and transportation-related deaths using “nowcasting” methods to account for the normal lag between the occurrence and reporting of these deaths. Estimates less than 10 are suppressed. These early model-based provisional estimates were generated using a multi-stage hierarchical Bayesian modeling process to generate smoothed estimates of the weekly numbers of death, accounting for reporting lags. These estimates are based on several assumptions about how the reporting lags have changed in recent months across different jurisdictions, and the resulting estimates differ from other sources of provisional mortality data. For now, these estimates should be considered highly uncertain until further evaluations can be done to determine the validity of these assumptions about timeliness. The true patterns in reporting lags will not be known until data are finalized, typically 11–12 months after the end of the calendar year. Importantly, these estimates are not a replacement for monthly provisional drug overdose death counts, or quarterly provisional mortality estimates. For more detail about the nowcasting methods and models, see:

Rossen LM, Hedegaard H, Warner M, Ahmad FB, Sutton PD. Early provisional estimates of drug overdose, suicide, and transportation-related deaths: Nowcasting methods to account for reporting lags. Vital Statistics Rapid Release; no 11. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. February 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15620/ cdc:101132

Columns

NameSocrata field nameColumn name in sgr mountData typeDescription
Rolling 4-Week Upperrolling4weekupperrolling4weekupperNumber95% Credible Interval Upper Bound (Rolling 4-week average)
Rolling 4-Week Lowerrolling4weeklowerrolling4weeklowerNumber95% Credible Interval Lower Bound (Rolling 4-week average)
Rolling 4-Week Meanrolling4weekmeanrolling4weekmeanNumberPosterior Predicted Median Number (Rolling 4-week average)
MMWR WeekmmwrweekmmwrweekText
MMWR YearmmwryearmmwryearText
Upper BoundupperboundupperboundNumber95% Credible Interval Upper Bound
Lower BoundlowerboundlowerboundNumber95% Credible Interval Lower Bound
Median NumbermediannumbermediannumberNumberPosterior Predicted Median Number
State AbbreviationstateabbstateabbText
StatestatestateText
Week Ending DateweekendingweekendingCalendar dateWeek of Death
AnalysisDateanalysisdateanalysisdateTextDate of Analysis
OutcomeoutcomeoutcomeTextDrug overdose, suicide, or transportation-related death

Upstream Metadata