Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

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Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.

Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.


NameSocrata field nameColumn name in sgr mountData typeDescription
Exceeds Thresholdexceeds_thresholdexceeds_thresholdCheckbox
Total Excess Higher Estimate in 2020total_excess_higher_estimate_in_2020total_excess_higher_estimate_in_2020Number
Excess Lower Estimateexcess_lower_estimateexcess_lower_estimateNumber
Total Excess Lower Estimate in 2020total_excess_lower_estimate_in_2020total_excess_lower_estimate_in_2020Number
Upper Bound Thresholdupper_bound_thresholdupper_bound_thresholdNumber
Excess Higher Estimateexcess_higher_estimateexcess_higher_estimateNumber
Observed Numberobserved_numberobserved_numberNumber
Percent Excess Lower Estimatepercent_excess_lower_estimatepercent_excess_lower_estimateNumber
Week Ending Dateweek_ending_dateweek_ending_dateText
Average Expected Countaverage_expected_countaverage_expected_countNumber
Percent Excess Higher Estimatepercent_excess_higher_estimatepercent_excess_higher_estimateNumber

Upstream Metadata